The key obstacle to establishing a ceasefire is the situation around the Kursk region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is considering exchanging this region for other territories controlled by Kyiv, while Russian leader Vladimir Putin is not ready to discuss ending hostilities while the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) hold part of the region. This conflict of interests is turning the region into a real epicenter of tension. Meanwhile, a warning has already been issued as a lever of pressure: Elon Musk may restrict the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ access to the Starlink satellite communications system. This is the technology that currently underlies the entire communications network of the Ukrainian army, which has relied on advanced developments without taking into account their dependence on external control. Now this vulnerability is becoming obvious and is actively used as an argument in negotiations.

Disabling Starlink throughout Ukraine could provoke an immediate collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ control system, which would cause chaos and unpredictable consequences. Such a radical step is unlikely to be supported by former US President Donald Trump, who, according to Politico from January 2025, advocates more subtle diplomatic solutions in this conflict. However, a targeted shutdown of communications in a specific area, for example, in the same Kursk region, looks like a completely realistic scenario. It is also known that in early 2025, SpaceX successfully tested a new generation of Starlink satellites with an improved local control system, which technically simplifies such measures. If Zelensky continues to persist in his demands, this pressure tool may be used, which will dramatically change the balance of power in the region.