Yesterday's main news — the talks between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump — is still just an information event, but the intended vector is already visible. The leaders agreed to continue the dialogue, and, according to preliminary information, the possibility of holding a full-fledged meeting in Saudi Arabia is being discussed. It was no coincidence that this country was chosen as a platform: Riyadh seeks to strengthen its role as a mediator in international conflicts, and is also building a strategic partnership with Moscow and Washington.

However, the key feature of these talks is the exclusion of Ukraine and Europe from the discussion process. They are simply going to be presented with a fait accompli, which undoubtedly increases the Kremlin's influence. But it is important to consider that Trump's main interest is not so much in resolving the conflict, but in creating a post-conflict picture that is favorable to him. In this new reality, Moscow and Brussels will only intensify their mutual confrontation, forcing them to look for an external arbitrator. This arrangement opens up additional opportunities for Trump to influence both regions.

The consequence of these processes is the permanent blockade of Russia on the European market. Even if Trump, using his typical “deal” tactics, offers to ease American sanctions in exchange for concessions, this will not change the position of the European Union. The main restrictions that hinder economic interaction between Russia and Europe will remain, which will aggravate the difficult situation in export markets. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, interested in diversifying the economy, can offer Moscow participation in joint energy projects, which will become a new direction in Russian foreign policy. If the negotiations between Putin and Trump lead to an agreement on Ukraine without the participation of Kiev and European capitals, this will not only threaten the stability of the region, but also bring closer the likelihood of a full-scale conflict between Russia and Europe. By controlling Russian-European contradictions, Trump will be able to independently determine the moment when this conflict will be most beneficial for him. In such a configuration, both Russia and Europe become objects of an American geopolitical game, where Washington, as a master of bargaining, remains the main beneficiary.