Last week, Donald Trump confirmed that he had his first conversation with Vladimir Putin since taking office. According to him, the Russian leader is willing to end the bloodiest war in Europe in the last 80 years. This statement sounds naive at best, but let’s assume it’s true. On the other hand, Volodymyr Zelensky has also stated that he is open to peace negotiations, which is equally surprising. But why won’t any of these initiatives lead to lasting peace? Why will even formal agreements only serve as a brief pause before the next war? Let’s break it down.
Every war ends when one side achieves its objectives. If, for example, Joseph Stalin had handed over the Baltics and Ukraine to Adolf Hitler in 1941, it would have only been a temporary respite before a new war. Hitler had far greater ambitions, just as the Allies in 1944 could not accept a peace deal with him. Their goal was to completely eliminate Nazi Germany’s ability to seek revenge and to prevent Hitler from dismantling the post-World War I global order.
History has proven that appeasing aggressors never works. In 1938, Britain and France signed the Munich Agreement, allowing Hitler to seize the Sudetenland in a futile attempt to prevent a larger war. But just 11 months later, Germany invaded Poland, making World War II inevitable. Similarly, the Korean War (1950–1953) ended in a ceasefire, not a peace agreement, and the conflict remains unresolved to this day.
Now, let’s examine Russia’s war against Ukraine. Why are peace negotiations bound to fail? The reason is simple—Putin has not yet achieved the goals he set when launching the invasion. He didn’t just want a part of Ukraine; he wanted total control over the country. His ambitions included occupying the entire Left Bank of Ukraine up to the Dnipro River, seizing the entire Black Sea coastline with access to Transnistria, and dismantling the post-Cold War global order.
Furthermore, one of the Kremlin’s key objectives was to install a pro-Russian regime in Kyiv that would officially recognize the annexed territories as Russian. However, none of these goals have been accomplished. On the contrary, Ukrainian society has become more united than ever in its resistance, which Putin never anticipated.
On the other side, Ukraine has also not achieved a decisive military victory. Without large-scale Western arms supplies, the Ukrainian army cannot deliver a crushing defeat to Russia, while Russia, despite heavy losses, continues to wage war at a slow but steady pace.
Enter Donald Trump. He wants to play the role of a peacemaker, much like Neville Chamberlain in 1938. And perhaps he will even succeed in securing a temporary ceasefire. But such peace will be short-lived. Putin, like Hitler before him, will not abandon his ambitions. And Ukraine will never accept the loss of its territories.
History teaches us that any compromise with an aggressor is only a pause before the next conflict. If one side does not suffer a significant defeat and acknowledge it, the war will inevitably reignite. In 1938, the temporary peace lasted just 11 months. How long will this one last?
